OPEC Squeezed by US Shale


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with some non-OPEC members led by Russian Federation, agreed in December to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018.

Oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other global oil players are set to gather in Houston as CERAWeek, the largest energy industry conference, begins on Monday.

The U.S. has experienced strong production growth in recent years as such energy giants as Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) have boosted their output from shale regions including the Permian Basin in Texas and the Bakken Formation in North Dakota. The US was once the world's top oil importer.

With oilsands production expected to keep growing, crude-by-rail shipments could peak as high as 590,000 barrels a day in 2019 if producers don't resort to crude storage in peak months, the IEA said. The contract was well below this year's highs of over $71 per barrel that it hit in January.

The agency continues to worry that globally, investment in new production has not recovered from the oil price plunge between mid-2014 and 2016.

USA crude rose 2% to $62.48 a barrel Monday.

Booming American shale oil supply will dominate global crude growth over the next few years, but there will be room for increased Canadian exports into the U.S.as producers there target export markets, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

As a result, Canada will actually be the third largest source of non-OPEC oil supply growth in the next five years after the US and Brazil.

"We think we are going to see a major second wave of USA shale production coming strongly", Birol said Monday at the CERAWeek IHS Markit conference in Houston. Thanks to the shale revolution, the United States leads the picture, with total liquids production reaching almost 17 mb/d in 2023, up from 13.2 mb/d in 2017. Still, Canadian producers should be able to increase shipments to US refineries, assuming completion of new pipeline projects like TransCanada Corp.'s Keystone XL and Enbridge Inc.'s Line 3. Sharply falling production in Venezuela will offset gains in Iraq, resulting in OPEC crude oil capacity growth of just 750,000 barrels a day by 2023.

The path is clear to get those additional barrels to world markets.

However, American production from known shale-oil reserves is soaring.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 0.6% to $64.78 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.



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