India's GDP growth to accelerate in next 2 fiscals


India's GDP growth to accelerate in next 2 fiscals

According to Department of Agriculture and Cooperation's data, the production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17.

"Implicit calculation suggests H2 FY18 growth will be 7%", chief statistician T C A Anant told a news conference as he presented an analysis of the first advance estimates of national income for 2017-18.

Putting out an extremely conservative growth estimate for the year by extrapolating seven to eight months of data on benchmark indicators, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) projected growth in the second half of the year at 7 per cent. The GDP had grown at 7.1% during the 2016-'17 fiscal year.

The government's statistics wing will have data only for additional one or two months than what it had for its second quarter (July-September) GDP estimate to make the full-year GDP growth projection. Per capita income to fall too India's per capita income, a gauge for measuring living standard, is likely to witness a slower growth of 8.3 per cent at Rs 1,11,782 in FY 2017-18.

He said that 6.5 per cent for the full year meant that Q3 and Q4 numbers will be far better than first half of the year.

With the government struggling to meet the fiscal deficit, the upcoming budget is unlikely to announce mega public spending plans to boost economic growth.

Mr Sinha said accelerating GDP growth from this level and maintaining it close to 8 per cent will be a tough task even after the economy begins to reap the benefits of GST. On the other hand, growth in the "agriculture, forestry and fishing", "mining and quarrying", "manufacturing" and "construction" sectors "is estimated to be 2.1 percent (from 4.9 per cent), 2.9 percent (from 1.8 percent), 4.6 percent (from 7.9 per cent) and 3.6 percent (from 1.7 percent)", respectively. Previous year this sector had growth at 5.7%. As for computing budget numbers such as fiscal deficit, advance estimates have been used.

"Even the current GDP forecast of 6.5 per cent is likely to be hard to attain, given that growth in the first half was just 6 per cent", Rao added.

"Accordingly, the advance estimates for GDP and GVA growth appear to be understating economic expansion for FY2018, in our view", Nayar said. This is lower than the growth rate of 5.7% achieved in the last financial year.

"As such, for a broad based recovery the rural economy needs to recover and we can expect the upcoming budget to focus on alleviating some of the stress in the rural economy and concentrating on measures to augment the flow of credit in the economy", said Chakravarty.



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